The US presidential elections are less than two months away, and according to the US News & World Report, inflation and the high cost of living are a top concern to voters age 18-34. As the candidates make their cases for how their administrations might address these concerns, one factor that doesn’t get talked about as much as it probably should is the effect on climate change on food prices.

And it’s not just a problem in the US. Global food prices have fluctuated pretty wildly since the pandemic, reaching a peak in 2022 and coming down somewhat in 2023. And while climate change isn’t the only factor affecting supply chain issues (geopolitical conflicts, increased demand and other rising input costs contribute too), when it comes to the price of orange juice and olive oil, to name two widely used supermarket items that have seen sharp price increases, climate change plays a large part and is only likely to keep sending prices upward for the foreseeable future.

According to charts researched and created by Carbon Brief, a UK-based website focused on climate science, here are five climate change-related situations that have been affecting food prices:

  1. Extreme heat in Europe: A 2024 study found that, in Europe, extreme heat could boost food price inflation up to 3% a year globally in both higher and lower income countries.
  2. Heavy rainfall in England: Unusually high rainfall can delay crop plantings and cause flooding that lessens crop yields. In 2024, winter wheat, winter barley, spring barley, oats and rapeseed are all projected to yield 17.5% less overall than in 2023.
  3. Crop failure in the US: Orange production in the US is dropping due to disease and extreme weather. 90% of Florida’s orange groves were decimated in Hurricane Ian in 2022, and Florida oranges are also beset with “citrus greening disease” which is spread by invasive insects.
  4. Above-average temperatures leading to drought in the Mediterranean: In 2022 and 2023, olive oil production dropped so much in Spain, the world’s largest producer, that olive oil has become the “most stolen products from supermarkets across Spain”. While production has recovered somewhat in 2024, prices are still 50% higher in the EU and 70% higher in Portugal compared to 2023.
  5. Heat, cold and drought in China: China is the global leader in grain production, raising more wheat and rice than any other country. But this year in Henan province, where much of China’s food is grown, farmers have had to contend with extended droughts followed by torrential rains, leading to sharply rising prices not only on grains but on staple vegetables like cabbage and spinach.

    You can check out the Carbon Brief charts on the Texas Climate News website here.